"Listen, its hard to win ball games at this level on a nightly basis.

Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Jerseys Stitched .Two San Francisco radio stations say they wont play the song during the duration of the World Series. A Kansas City, Missouri, station responded with plans to play the Grammy-winning track every hour from 7 a. NFL Jerseys Cheap . With his father watching from the stands, Harrison homered, doubled, single and drove in a career-high five runs to lead the Pirates to a 8-3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. http://www.wholesalenflchinacheapjerseys.com/ . Bjoerndalen, who had failed to win any major race for two years before Sochi, writes in a Facebook entry that he is "full of energy and inspiration" after winning the 10-kilometre sprint and mixed relay at last months Olympics. Wholesale Cheap Jerseys . THE MICHAEL JORDAN FLU GAME First this famous basketball moment. The story goes like this. “Game 5, known as "The Flu Game", was one of Michael Jordans most memorable. Wholesale Jerseys Free Shipping . -- The Detroit Lions made it crystal clear to Golden Tate that he was their top target in free agency.SEATTLE -- Yohan Pino has the game ball to prove he belongs in the majors, even if he doesnt have a big league job anymore. The Minnesota Twins rookie right-hander earned his first major league victory -- beating the Seattle Mariners 4-2 Thursday night in his fifth big league appearance -- and was told after the game that hes being sent back to the minors to make room for LHP Kris Johnson to start Friday at Colorado. Throwing 100 pitches, Pino (1-2) allowed one run and seven hits in his five innings, walked two and struck out four. "I have to go down and do my job and try to get back," Pino said. His efforts didnt go unnoticed. "This works out for us, roster-wise ... but Pino was fabulous," Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said. "We gave him the game ball for his first major league win. We saw he had to battle for it. He made it through the fifth, which was huge." Kendrys Morales had the big hit, a two-run double in the fifth inning that gave the Twins a 4-1 lead. Morales, who played for the Mariners last season, came up with two outs and runners on first and second. He lined his double over centre fielder James Jones extended glove. Both runners scored without a throw. Glen Perkins worked the ninth to pick up his 22nd save in 25 opportunities. Tom Wilhelmsen (1-2) made his first major league start after 191 relief appearances for the Mariners, never pitching more than three innings in his career. He worked 2 2-3 innings, allowing two runs, one hit and three walks with three strikeouts. Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon used six relievers to cover the nine innings after Taijuan Walker, who would have started, was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma to keep him in rotation during the All-Star break. The decision also gave staff ace Felix Hernandez an extra days rest to be available to start Friday against AL West-leading Oakland As. McClendon also made his decision knowing his bullpen had a 0.77 ERA with 63 strikeouts in the previous 18 games. Wilhelmsen had little trouble through the first two innings, throwing just 27 pitches. But he laboured in the third, issuing a one-out walk to Sam Fuld before Brian Dozier singled. With Kurt Suzuki at the plate, the runners pulled off a successful double steal. Caatcher Mike Zuninos throw to third sailed into left field allowing Fuld to score and Dozier to reach third.dddddddddddd Dozier scored on Suzukis sacrifice fly to centre. Kyle Seager, heading to the All-Star game Tuesday, had given the Mariners a 1-0 lead with his 14th home run in the second inning. Seager has a team-leading 60 RBIs. He is hitting .352 in 45 games at Safeco Field this season. Pino twice survived bases-loaded, two-out threats. In the third with a 3-2 count on Corey Hart, he threw a 79 mph slider that Hart chased to end it. "I just want him to put the ball in play. I dont want to walk him," Pino said. "I throw it over the plate. Whatever he wants to do." In the fifth, Hart again came up with the bases loaded and Pino induced him to ground out weakly to first, as the ball spun around the infield grass and was chased down by first baseman Chris Parmelee. That continued a poor offensive trend for the Mariners. They are just 2 for 33 with runners in scoring position over the past seven games. "We just havent got that big hit to put us over the top yet," McClendon said. "Listen, its hard to win ball games at this level on a nightly basis." Seattle reliever Danny Farquhar left with two outs in the fifth after Suzuki and Parmelee singled. Joe Beimel entered and was victimized by Morales. In the seventh, the Mariners loaded the bases again, with one out. Endy Chavez scored on Seagers sacrifice fly to left, but the rally ended when James Jones was ruled out trying to advance to third after a video review. "I was not only eating the (sunflower) seeds, I was eating the bag," Gardenhire said. NOTES: Colorado 1B Justin Morneau, who played 11 seasons for the Twins before being traded to Pittsburgh last August, will be part of the All-Star game festivities next week in Minneapolis. He was selected to compete in the Home Run Derby, which he won in 2008. ... Wilhelmsens start after 191 appearances is the third-most in club history behind Luis DeLeon (206) and Dwayne Henry (225). ... Cano is hitting .484 over his last 16 games against the Twins. ... The Mariners Michael Saunders held his side after checking his swing in the eighth. He was replaced by Dustin Ackley. ' ' '